Numerical experiments using mesonh/forefire coupled Atmospheric-fire model

International audienceIn this study we attempt to couple the MesoNH atmospheric model in its large eddy simulation configuration with a fire contour model, ForeFire. Coupling is performed at each atmospheric time step, with the fire propagation model inputting the wind fields and outputting heat and vapour fluxes to the atmospheric model. ForeFire model is a Lagrangian front tracking model that runs at a typical front resolution of 1 meter. If the approach is similar to other successful attempts of fire-atmosphere coupled models, the use of MesoNH and ForeFire implied the development of an original coupling method. Fluxes outputted to the atmospheric models are integrated using polygon clipping method between the fire front position and the atmospheric mesh. Another originality of the approach is the fire rate of spread model that integrates wind effect by calculating the flame tilt. This reduced physical model is based on the radiating panel hypothesis. A set of idealized simulation are presented to illustrate the coupled effects between fire and the atmosphere. Preliminary results show that the coupled model is able to reproduce results that are comparable to other existing numerical experiments with a relatively small computational cost (one hour for a typical idealized case on a 200 GFlops capable computer). MesoNH serves as a research model for the meteorological systems in France and Europe, and is well integrated within the operational tool chain. Future validation scenarios will be performed on nested simulations of real large wildfires

Discrete event front tracking simulator of a physical fire spread model

International audienceSimulation of moving interfaces, like a fire front usually requires the resolution of a large scale and detailed domain. Such computing involves the use of supercomputers to process the large amount of data and calculations. This limitation is mainly due to the fact that large scale of space and time is usually split into nodes, cells or matrices, and the solving methods often require small time steps. This paper presents a novel method that enables the simulation of large scale/high resolution systems by focusing on the interface. Unlike the conventional explicit and implicit integration schemes, it is based on the discrete-event approach, which describes time advance in terms of increments of physical quantities rather than discrete time stepping. Space as well is not split into discrete nodes or cells, but we use polygons with real coordinates. The system is described by the behaviour of its interface, and evolves by computing collision events of this interface in the simulation. As this simulation technique is suited for a class of models that can explicitly provide rate of spread for a given configuration, we developed a specific radiation based propagation model of physical wildland fire. Simulations of a real large scale fire performed with an implementation of our method provide very interesting results in less than 30 seconds with a 3 metres resolution with current personal computers

Novel method for a posteriori uncertainty quantification in wildland fire spread simulation

International audienceSimulation is used to predict the spread of a wildland fire across land in real-time. Nevertheless, the large uncertainties in these simulations must be quantified in order to provide better information to fire managers. Ensemble forecasts are usually applied for this purpose, with an input parameter distribution that is defined based on expert knowledge.A novel approach is proposed in order to generate calibrated ensembles whose input distribution is defined by a posterior PDF with a pseudo-likelihood function that involves the Wasserstein distance between simulated and observed burned surfaces of several fire cases. Due to the high dimension and the computational requirements of the pseudo-likelihood function, a Gaussian process emulator is built to obtain a sample of the calibrated input distribution with a MCMC algorithm in about one day of computation on 8 computing cores.The calibrated ensembles lead to better overall accuracy than the uncalibrated ensembles. The a posteriori probability distribution of the inputs favors lower values of rate of spread and lower uncertainty in wind direction. This strongly limits overprediction, while keeping the ability of the ensemble to cover the observed burned area

Generation and evaluation of an ensemble of wildland fire simulations

International audienceNumerical simulations of wildfire spread can provide support in deciding firefighting actions but their predictive performance is challenged by the uncertainty of model inputs stemming from weather forecasts, fuel parameterisation and other fire characteristics. In this study, we assign probability distributions to the inputs and propagate the uncertainty by running hundreds of Monte Carlo simulations. The ensemble of simulations is summarised via a burn probability map whose evaluation based on the corresponding observed burned surface is not obvious. We define several properties and introduce probabilistic scores that are common in meteorological applications. Based on these elements, we evaluate the predictive performance of our ensembles for seven fires that occurred in Corsica from mid-2017 to early 2018. We obtain fair performance in some of the cases but accuracy and reliability of the forecasts can be improved. The ensemble generation can be accomplished in a reasonable amount of time and could be used in an operational context provided that sufficient computational resources are available. The proposed probabilistic scores are also appropriate in a calibration process to improve the ensembles

Modelling pyro-convection phenomenon during a mega-fire event in Portugal

The present study contributes to an increased understanding of pyro-convection phenomena by using a fire-atmosphere coupled simulation, and investigates in detail the large-scale meteorological conditions affecting Portugal during the occurrence of multiple mega-fires events on 15 October 2017. Two numerical simulations were performed using the MesoNH atmospheric model. The first simulation, was run for a large single domain (300 x 250 grid points) with a 15 km resolution. In the second one, the MesoNH was coupled to a fire propagation model (ForeFire) to study in detail the Quiaios's fire. To optimize both high resolution in the proximity of the fire region and computational efficiency, the simulation is set up using 3 nested domains (300 x 300 grid points) with horizontal resolution of 2000 m, 400 m, and 80 m respectively. The emission into the atmosphere of the heat and the water vapour fluxes caused by the evolving fire is managed by the ForeFire code. The fire spatio-temporal evolution is based on an assigned map, which follows what reported by public authorities. At the large scale, the simulation shows the evolution of the hurricane Ophelia, pointing out the influence of south/southwest winds on the rapid spread of active fires, as well as the subtropical moisture transport toward mainland Portugal in the early evening, when violent pyro-convective activity was observed in Central Portugal. The coupled simulation allowed to reproduce the formation of a PyroCu cloud inside the smoke plume. The convective updraughts caused by the fire led to the vertical transport of water vapour to higher levels and enhanced the development of a high-based cloud over a dry atmospheric layer within the smoke plume

Emulation of wildland fire spread simulation using deep learning

Numerical simulation of wildland fire spread is useful to predict the locations that are likely to burn and to support decision in an operational context, notably for crisis situations and long-term planning. For short-term, the computational time of traditional simulators is too high to be tractable over large zones like a country or part of a country, especially for fire danger mapping.This issue is tackled by emulating the area of the burned surface returned after simulation of a fire igniting anywhere in Corsica island and spreading freely during one hour, with a wide range of possible environmental input conditions. A deep neural network with a hybrid architecture is used to account for two types of inputs: the spatial fields describing the surrounding landscape and the remaining scalar inputs.After training on a large simulation dataset, the network shows a satisfactory approximation error on a complementary test dataset with a MAPE of 32.8%. The convolutional part is pre-computed and the emulator is defined as the remaining part of the network, saving significant computational time. On a 32-core machine, the emulator has a speed-up factor of several thousands compared to the simulator and the overall relationship between its inputs and output is consistent with the expected physical behavior of fire spread. This reduction in computational time allows the computation of one-hour burned area map for the whole island of Corsica in less than a minute, opening new application in short-term fire danger mapping

Simulation-based high resolution fire danger mapping using deep learning

Wildfire occurrence and behavior are difficult to predict very locally for the next day. In the present work, we use an artificial neural network emulator called DeepFire, trained on the basis of simulated fire sizes, and study its application to fire danger mapping using actual weather fore-1 casts. Experimental analysis is based on DeepFire forecasts for 13 relatively big fires that occurred in Corsica and corresponding forecasts based on a fire danger index used in operational conditions. A comparative analysis of both indices is presented, highlighting the differences in terms of precision and expected results of such predictions. Forcing weather forecasts used as input have high spatial resolution and high frequency, which also applies to the fire danger predictions. Additionally, input uncertainty is propagated through DeepFire, resulting in ensembles of emulated fire size. Eventually, several approaches are proposed to analyze the results and help in investing assessment of next-day fire danger using this new simulation-based prediction system

Orthorectification of helicopter-borne high resolution experimental burn observation from infra red handheld imagers

To pursue the development and validation of coupled fire-atmosphere models, the wildland fire modeling community needs validation data sets with scenarios where fire-induced winds influence fire front behavior, and with high temporal and spatial resolution. Helicopter-borne infrared thermal cameras have the potential to monitor landscape-scale wildland fires at a high resolution during experimental burns. To extract valuable information from those observations, three-step image processing is required: (a) Orthorectification to warp raw images on a fixed coordinate system grid, (b) segmentation to delineate the fire front location out of the orthorectified images, and (c) computation of fire behavior metrics such as the rate of spread from the time-evolving fire front location. This work is dedicated to the first orthorectification step, and presents a series of algorithms that are designed to process handheld helicopter-borne thermal images collected during savannah experimental burns. The novelty in the approach lies on its recursive design, which does not require the presence of fixed ground control points, hence relaxing the constraint on field of view coverage and helping the acquisition of high-frequency observations. For four burns ranging from four to eight hectares, long-wave and mid infra red images were collected at 1 and 3 Hz, respectively, and orthorectified at a high spatial resolution (<1 m) with an absolute accuracy estimated to be lower than 4 m. Subsequent computation of fire radiative power is discussed with comparison to concurrent space-borne measurementsPeer ReviewedPostprint (published version

INTERCOMPARAÇÃO DE SIMULAÇÕES NUMÉRICAS COM MODELOS ATMOSFÉRICOS ACOPLADOS A MODELOS DE PROPAGAÇÃO DE FOGO

A propagação do fogo associada à atividade piro-convectiva extrema é atualmente altamente imprevisível e difícil de combater. Este relatório apresenta os principais resultados de simulações realizadas a partir do acoplamento entre modelos de resolução de nuvens e modelos de propagação de fogo, nomeadamente MesoNH/ForeFire, WRF/FIRE e WRF/SFIRE. Os códigos acoplados foram utilizados no estudo dos mega incêndios de Pedrógão Grande e Góis ocorridos em junho de 2017 e do mega incêndio de Quiaios ocorrido em outubro de 2017. As descobertas mostram os benefícios do uso de modelos acoplados para avaliar o potencial de condições perigosas associadas à piro-convecção